David J. Frank 1, Michael J. King 2, Clinton D. Dennard 3, and Brooke N. Macnamara 4
1Youngstown State University, USA,
2Quantum Improvements Consulting, USA,
3Department of Psychology and Special Education, Texas A&M University-Commerce, USA,
4Department of Psychological Sciences, Case Western Reserve University, USA
The National Football League (NFL) Scouting Combine (the Combine), is an annual track-meet style event where NFL scouts and general managers evaluate newly-eligible players before the upcoming draft. During the Combine, players’ height, weight, speed, agility, acceleration, jumping, explosive movement, and strength are measured through their participation in multiple drills such as the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, and bench press. Although numerous studies have tested which individual drills predict NFL success for different positions, the results are often inconsistent across studies. These previous studies rely largely on individual predictors without considering how the various abilities measured at the Combine work together to predict performance. In this study, using discriminate function analysis, we analyze 20 years of data to identify the best combination of skills necessary to achieve varying levels of success for each player position. To date, this study represents the largest, most comprehensive study on the topic. We found that for offensive positions, single measures were often the best predictors of success. By contrast, for defensive positions, we found significant discriminant functions identifying unique combinations of traits that predicted success. We examined success using multiple benchmarks: draft status, number of games played, number of games started, and honors received. All significance tests were two-tailed, alpha = .05. These results indicate that, at least for some NFL positions, scouts and general managers should consider relative performance across multiple drills. Differences between the predictors presumably used by scouts and general managers when drafting players and those which predict actual NFL success are discussed.